(LVDE) – On October 12, Cameroonians will head to the polls to elect their president. Paul Biya, who has already been in power for 43 years, is running for an eighth term. In this electoral context, economic operators are closely monitoring the potential economic and political implications of a vote whose outcome is widely considered predictable.
The 2025 presidential election in Cameroon is shaping up to be a pivotal event for the country and its investors. On October 12, voters will decide whether to grant another mandate to President Paul Biya, now 92 years old and in office for over four decades. While the results seem almost certain, several economic and political factors are drawing the attention of market players.
Biya’s main challengers, Issa Tchiroma Bakary, former Minister of Employment, and Bello Bouba Maigari, his former Prime Minister, struggle to compete with the incumbent’s influence. The notable absence of Maurice Kamto, the leading opposition figure whose candidacy was rejected by a controversial electoral commission, raises questions about the legitimacy of the electoral process and how this might affect foreign investor perceptions.
Cameroon recently entered the Eurobond market, issuing its first international bond in 2015. In 2024, the country returned to the markets with another issue maturing in 2032. This development has captured investors’ attention, particularly as the country had been benefiting from a $689.5 million IMF program and $181.7 million under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, both of which expired in July. The prospect of a new IMF arrangement is a key issue investors are watching closely.
Structurally, Cameroon’s economy depends on commodity exports—especially cocoa, for which it is the world’s fifth-largest producer—as well as oil, gas, and timber. This reliance makes the economy highly vulnerable to global commodity price fluctuations. While the IMF has deemed Cameroon’s debt sustainable, it carries a heightened risk of over-indebtedness due to rising borrowing and what is seen as weak debt management.
Whoever emerges as president will face considerable challenges. The government plans to borrow $1.6 billion from both local and international markets to fill a widening budget deficit, exacerbated by reduced external financing. Moreover, an initial $750 million Eurobond matures in November 2025, potentially adding further strain to public finances.
The challenges extend beyond fiscal matters. Cameroon must also contend with mounting environmental threats, such as droughts and floods, which jeopardize agricultural productivity and, consequently, food security. Climate instability could hinder the production of essential goods, further complicating the government’s economic agenda.
Paul Biya’s health is another major concern for investors. At his advanced age, the absence of a clear succession plan raises doubts about the country’s political stability and the continuity of economic policies. Any shift in leadership could significantly affect investor confidence and alter Cameroon’s economic trajectory.
Anatole Bidias, (Source: https://businessfinanceint.com)
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